It’s time of lok sabha elections again in India and everyone is figuring out the fate of political leaders and India. Many websites are conducting online survey polls and astrologers are busy in predicting dasha (period) of Rahul Gandhi and Narender Modi for 2014.
No one knows the final answer – except God here. But let’s see some facts as on today.
It’s clear that 2 major political parties in India at this moment are Congress and Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP).
BJP has given its election command to Narender Modi. While Rahul Gandhi will lead Congress among other main leaders.
Till now, BJP is divided in declaring Narender Modi as their PM candidate. Congress yet to announce their PM candidate.
Updated on 14-Sep-2013: It’s official now. Narender Modi has been declared as BJP PM candidate for 2014 lok sabha elections. Check more at http://www.indiaelections2014.in/lok-sabha/narendra-modi-bjps-pm-candidate/
Now, coming to inside of these 2 political parties. What general public think of them.
It’s ruling India from the last 10 years continuously, headed by PM Dr. Manmohan Singh and Congress president Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. Everyone, including world leaders, were expecting major economic reforms from our PM as he did when he was finance minister of India in 1990′s. But he didn’t.
Main difference is that currently, Govt. in Parliament is run by number of other political parties and not just by Congress MPs. So, Congress has to see various aspects of any reform before even thinking of them. They can’t go against their political friends. Just to give you one example, current account deficit (CAD) of India is at all time high. But our finance minister is not rising petrol or diesel prices. Why? because it will impact masses and elections are coming and they are not ready to take any hard economic decision.
Rupee is depreciating every day. At the time of writing this article, it’s near 66 levels and analysts are saying that it will touch at least 70. NSEL is closed and has become default in payment. FII’s are taking out their money from equity market as well as from debt market. No one is putting money in India as they have lost faith in Indian Govt.
FM Chidambaram is suggesting Indians NOT to invest in Gold as it is useless metal. But in the last 5 years, stock market has given negative returns; investors have lost money in NSEL and bond funds; property rates are too high to invest for a common man. So, where is the room to invest? The common man finds shelter in Gold as safe heaven and now, it’s trading at all time high. But FM is against it.
Indians are ready to invest more in equity market rather than in Gold, provided there is string regulator in market. NSEL was running without any regulator from the last 2-3 years and FM was unaware of that.
It’s India – anyone can open exchange and make any scheme in that.
IT company Satyam case is till pending.
The current situation of India is more worst than what it had in 1990′s. Seems, Govt. has to monetize Gold again to fund account deficit.
The Govt. was too busy in passing
vote Food security bill. I wish they could show same energy and enthusisim in passing economic reforms in parliament.
Overall, neither PM nor FM is taking any major reform. Adding to it, we’ve a long list of corruption cases in UPA raaj. The limitation of space does not allow me to make that list here, but everyone knows that. Above all, inflation has increased considerably and common man suffering does not seems to be end near by.
So, current wave is against Congress at this time.
Now, coming to BJP. Think of BJP and you can recall 4-5 major political leaders. In the last few years, it was busy in internal cold wars of leaders. This time their election command is in the hands of Narender Modi.
He has been winning Gujrat elections from the last so many years and it’s the third time he has been sworn as CM of Gujrat. BJP is convinced on his “victory” style and they hope if they adopt the same “style” for lok sabha elections, BJP can form Govt. in India.
It was difficult to convince senior leader L.K. Advani initially. But they managed to do so.
One must remember Narender Modi’s diplomatic Visa application was rejected by USA in 2005. Quoting from Times of India Dt.Mar 18, 2005
Taking a strong stand against the senior BJP leader and Hindutva icon, the US Consular division on Friday denied him a “diplomatic visa”, apparently holding him responsible for the communal riots in Gujarat in 2002 which claimed over 2000 lives. In addition, his tourist/business visa which was already granted has also been revoked under a section of US Immigration and Nationality Act.
And quote from Aug 13, 2013 Times of India says
Nearly 10 months after the British government warmed upto Narendra Modi, the India groups of the country’s two main political parties have invited the Gujarat chief minister to visit the UK.
Seems, something has changed in international level for Narender Modi.
Is he candidate for PM? Now till now.
One news channel reports that if BJP get about 150 seats in lok sabha elections, PM candidate will be either Sushma Swaraj or L.K. Advani. If they get about 200 seats, Narender Modi will be PM candidate.
But BJP or Congress can not make Govt. on their own. They need support of other political parties also.
Nitish Kumar Janta Dal Party has broken its alliance with BJP and seems it will support Congress this time.
Then we have Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal, Samajvadi Party, AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, NCP, Left Front, DMK, BSP, YSRC, DMDK, JVM(P) with many others and some independent MP’s.
Arvind Kejrival’s Aam Party has just started getting momentum and it may acquire 1-2 seats in Delhi but not much this time. The journey is long for them. It’s difficult but not impossible. After all, change is the law of nature.
It’s difficult to say which political party will support Congress and which one will to BJP; so as to call NDA or UPA.
There is saying in Bollywood and politics that there is no permanent friend or permanent enemy.
To summarize, the current wave is against Congress this time as they have failed on economic front very badly.
The chances of BJP are little bit higher this time. But major focus will be on other political parties support. Hung parliament result can not be ruled out and alliances will play major rule in forming Govt.
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